Fascinatin breakdown of the northward shift. The part about needing real-time data from Baja makes sense, but it's wild how much that data gap affects downsteram forecasting. I remember tracking a similar pattern shift and thinking the models were just off, turns out sparse initial conditions were the culprit.
Alan Gerard, in his excellent newsletter (linked in the article), specifically mentioned how lack of data from Alaska may have contributed also. Due to the budget cuts from 2025, there are a lot of stations in Alaska that are not doing balloon launches. :( And that limited what we knew about the polar vortex as it setup.
Thanks for this. I admire the way you merge the synoptic with the local. FYI, the forecasts made for Northern New Mexico on this storm were a spectacular bust .... blizzard-to-mild-sunny-afternoon bust. Wonderful example of the principle of the Least Regret Forecast leading forecasters wildly astray.
Fascinatin breakdown of the northward shift. The part about needing real-time data from Baja makes sense, but it's wild how much that data gap affects downsteram forecasting. I remember tracking a similar pattern shift and thinking the models were just off, turns out sparse initial conditions were the culprit.
Alan Gerard, in his excellent newsletter (linked in the article), specifically mentioned how lack of data from Alaska may have contributed also. Due to the budget cuts from 2025, there are a lot of stations in Alaska that are not doing balloon launches. :( And that limited what we knew about the polar vortex as it setup.
Thanks for this. I admire the way you merge the synoptic with the local. FYI, the forecasts made for Northern New Mexico on this storm were a spectacular bust .... blizzard-to-mild-sunny-afternoon bust. Wonderful example of the principle of the Least Regret Forecast leading forecasters wildly astray.