Introducing 8-Ball, A New Forecast Model
A WWAT Exclusive
For the past year or so, in between writing this newsletter, WWAT has been hard at work on a super secret mission. It was so secret, in fact, that we restricted talking about it to group chats.
But we can now throw back the veil! We have been developing a new weather forecasting computer model code-named 8-Ball.
The science behind 8-Ball is out-of-this-world. In fact, it’s so far-fetched that it doesn’t really exist. Things like data, knowledge, and scientific common sense are in such short supply that we decided to avoid them altogether. By rooting our model in fantasy, we don’t have to worry about the pesky real world getting in the way of progress.
You may ask yourself: “What use is fantasy in forecasting?” And I’d respond: “What is football without fantasy football?” That’s right, absolutely nothing. Reality is naught without fantasy. Just ask Edgar Allen Poe.1
Anyway, there is a thing in math/science called the Monte-Carlo simulation. The idea is to use randomness to make up for uncertainty - not to cheat exactly, but to hack the system in a clever way. If you’re missing data or the system is too complex to be bothered with, you run a bazillion simulations where the missing parts are filled in randomly. Over time, the randomness cancels itself out, and what you’re left with reflects the model itself without the noise. Or something like that.
In this case, we are using the Magic 8-Ball - the unofficial mascot of WWAT. Our new model requests a forecast for a given area, then shakes the Magic 8-Ball two bazillion times (two bazillion was the sweet spot between accuracy and arm fatigue).
In our first model run, we asked: “Will it snow in Chicago on April 1, 2025?”. It took about a year to do two bazillion shakes. The answer was:
And I’m happy to report it is not snowing today!
Therefore, our new method is 100% accurate. This is much better than any other computer weather model (except perhaps the Old Farmer’s Almanac). Therefore, we declare victory and officially release the product for public consumption.
But wait, there’s more!
We offer a 50% money-back guarantee. If our model doesn’t work for you, we’ll refund you 50% of your purchase price. What a deal!
And Now for Something Completely Different
On April Fool's Day in 1983, BMW published an advertisement promoting a rain-deflecting sunroof. They claimed one could keep the sunroof open during rainstorms and even in a carwash.
This reminded me of one of my favorite Mythbusters experiments which found walking in the rain actually keeps you drier. I once worked at a museum with a temporary Mythbusters exhibit, and we had a rain room where you could try it yourself. It was quite popular with the kids.
But science is progressive! The Mythbusters later discovered they were wrong. They used a type of simulated rain2. But when using real rain, running was indeed better. Because they are awesome, they corrected the error in a future episode. Can you imagine someone doing that today? If I heard a talking head on TV admitting an error and correcting themself, I’d assume it must be April Fools Day.
Take this kiss upon the brow! And, in parting from you now, Thus much let me avow — You are not wrong, who deem That my days have been a dream; Yet if hope has flown away In a night, or in a day, In a vision, or in none, Is it therefore the less gone? All that we see or seem Is but a dream within a dream. I stand amid the roar Of a surf-tormented shore, And I hold within my hand Grains of the golden sand — How few! yet how they creep Through my fingers to the deep, While I weep — while I weep! O God! Can I not grasp Them with a tighter clasp? O God! can I not save One from the pitiless wave? Is all that we see or seem But a dream within a dream?
- Poe
Water? Unfortunately I can’t find an actual video online, only a synopsis on their website.
I use the GOLU (go out, look up) model myself augmented by solar eclipse sunglasses and encased in a bubble-boy bubble. Works every time
AI-powered?