Lightning
With bonus cow content
This week we are at the 2024 Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Instead of our weekly single topic dives, we’re sending two newsletters with a collection of short research topics presented at the conference. And since pure randomness gives me the willies, we searched the conference program for a common theme - lightning.
Lightning is a popular topic at meteorological conferences.
It even gets more hits than Taylor Swift.
ThunderCast
The Thunderstorm NowCasting Tool is a new machine-learning model to predict thunderstorm activity in the continental U.S. within the next 60 minutes. It uses data from four wavelengths of the GOES-16 satellite’s Advanced Baseline Imager combined with radar input from the -10 degree Celsius isotherm, not to be confused as a Patagonia(tm) line of underwear, but rather a temperature layer in the atmosphere where hail typically forms. So, a strong signal in these remote sensing tools can signal a strong thunderstorm. First published last fall, new findings presented at this conference discuss how the tool is accurate at predicting storms in general but not as accurate at predicting storms with lightning (hence, no thunder in thunderstorms). To solve this, the researchers are looking deeply at what makes up those storms-without-lightning.
Lake Effect Electrification Project
The Lake Effect Electrification Project is not an 80’s pop rock band (though by rights it should be). It’s a project to see if the construction of wind turbines downwind of Lake Ontario impacts lightning strikes in lake effect storms. They observed the location of 239 lightning flashes in the winter of 2022-2023 (thundersnow!), and, sure enough, the presence of the wind turbines did impact the location and frequency of lightning strikes. It increases the frequency and attracts them from the lake to the turbines.
Lightning striking a tower in Oswego, NY, during the studied observing season.
(from Kaitlyn Jesmonth, @wxkaitlynj)
Oklahoma is OK! - for Wind Turbines
Apparently, lightning is an important topic in the wind turbine industry. In Oklahoma, researchers also studied whether the presence of new, large wind turbine fields there attracted increasing lightning. Contrary to the Lake Ontario research, they found no relationship between lightning and turbines. They also looked at other factors and found ground elevation to be more predictive.
And now for something completely different.
While waiting for a microwaved burrito, I had the following convo with ChatGPT+.
WWaT:
Is it more likely to be killed by a cow or struck by lightning? Please show your math.
ChatGPT
To compare the likelihood of being killed by a cow versus being struck by lightning, we'll need to find the annual number of deaths for each cause and compare them with the total population. This approach will give us a rough estimate of the probability.
Let's assume we're considering data for the United States.
Deaths by Cows:
Cows can be dangerous and are known to cause deaths, often by kicking or trampling. However, specific statistics on deaths caused by cows are not commonly reported. It's often grouped under "deaths by large mammals" or "farm-related accidents."
Estimates vary, but let's use a rough estimate of about 20 deaths per year in the US due to cows (this is a broad estimate and the actual number can vary).
Deaths by Lightning:
According to the National Weather Service, over the last 20 years, the US has averaged 49 reported lightning fatalities per year.
Population:
As of the most recent data, the population of the United States is approximately 330 million people.
Now, we'll calculate the probability of each event:
Probability = Number of deaths/Population
For cow-related deaths: Pcow = 20/330,000,000
For lightning-related deaths: Plightning = 49/330,000,000
Let's compute these probabilities.
The probability of being killed by a cow is approximately 6.06×10^−8, and the probability of being struck and killed by lightning is approximately 1.48×10^−7.
Comparing these probabilities:
The probability of being killed by lightning (1.48×10^−7) is higher than that of being killed by a cow (6.06×10^−8).
So, based on these rough estimates, it's more likely to be struck and killed by lightning than to be killed by a cow.
WWaT
But what if the cow is really angry?
ChatGPT
Even if the cow is really angry, the statistical likelihood of being killed doesn't necessarily increase significantly for the average person. Most cow-related fatalities occur in farming or ranching environments where there's regular close contact with cattle. For the general population, the risk remains quite low.
However, for individuals working directly with cattle, especially if the cow is agitated or perceives a threat, the risk of injury or death can indeed be higher. Proper handling, understanding cow behavior, and maintaining a safe environment are crucial in these settings to minimize risks.
Despite these considerations, statistically speaking, the probability of being killed by a cow (even an angry one) is still lower than the probability of being struck and killed by lightning, based on the average annual fatality rates.
WWaT
OK let’s say I am in a field of grass surrounded by angry cows, and a severe lightning storm is approaching. My only shelter from the cows is to stand beneath a tree surrounded by a fence. What should I do?
ChatGPT
In this situation, you're facing two risks: the threat from the angry cows and the danger of the lightning storm. Standing beneath a tree during a lightning storm is generally unsafe, as trees can attract lightning and being near a fence can also increase your risk during a lightning strike. Here's a safer course of action:
Avoid the Tree and Fence: Do not seek shelter under the tree or near the fence, as these are unsafe during a lightning storm. Lightning tends to strike taller objects and can travel along metal fences.
Stay Calm and Assess the Cows: If possible, try to calmly and slowly move away from the cows without making sudden movements or noise that could further agitate them. Cows are more likely to become aggressive if they feel threatened.
Find Lower Ground: If you're in an open field during a lightning storm, your best bet is to move to lower ground while maintaining a safe distance from the cows. Avoid hilltops, open fields, or any tall objects.
Lightning Safety Position: If you cannot avoid being in an open field during the lightning storm, adopt the lightning safety position. Crouch down with your heels together, ears covered, and head between your knees. Minimize contact with the ground and do not lie flat, as this increases your contact with the ground and the potential pathway for a lightning strike.
Plan Your Exit: Look for a safe path to leave the field. Your goal is to find a safe building or a vehicle to shelter from the storm. Enclosed buildings are generally safe from lightning. If a vehicle is available, it can offer safety as well, just avoid touching metal parts.
In any case, prioritize your immediate safety, and if you find yourself in such a situation, try to get to a safe place as quickly and calmly as possible.
WWaT
If you are surrounded by angry wolves, it is a well-known fact that you can throw raw meat at them to placate and distract them. If surrounded by angry cows, would throwing raw grass and hay at them work?
ChatGPT
While the idea of throwing raw meat to distract angry wolves is more of a myth and not a recommended practice, the concept of trying to calm or distract animals with food can vary greatly depending on the species and the situation.
For cows, the situation is quite different from predatory animals like wolves:
Cows are Herbivores: Cows naturally eat grass and hay, so these are familiar and appealing foods to them. However, throwing grass or hay to angry cows is unlikely to calm them down immediately, especially if they are already agitated or feel threatened.
Understanding Cow Behavior: Cows are generally not aggressive by nature. If cows are displaying aggressive behavior, it might be due to feeling threatened, protecting their calves, or due to illness or pain. Understanding the cause of their agitation is more important than trying to distract them with food.
Safety First: If you find yourself surrounded by agitated cows, prioritize your safety. Avoid sudden movements or loud noises that could further agitate them. Slowly and calmly try to move away from the cows while keeping an eye on them. Do not turn your back on them, and do not try to run, as this may trigger a chase response.
Seek Professional Help if Needed: If you are on a farm or near people who handle cattle regularly, seek their assistance. They can offer guidance and help manage the situation safely.
While cows might be interested in grass or hay under normal circumstances, using food as a distraction is unlikely to be an effective strategy if the cows are already agitated or perceive a threat. The best approach is to remain calm, move slowly, and avoid actions that might be perceived as threatening by the cows.
Next Issue: Our second conference roundup.
Thank you to Dr. Chad Kauffman for additional contributions.